Free Catastrophe: An Investigation Into the Origins of the Modern World by David Keys Page A

moment, and that very weakness had resulted in the length of the war and the empire’s temporary loss of territory. The immediate result was that by the end of the war in 630, both sides were exhausted militarily and financially.

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    C H A N G I N G  T H E  E M P I R E:
T H E  C U M U L A T I V E  I M P A C T
O F  T H E  P L A G U E  A N D
T H E  A V A R S
     
     
    T hough millions died from the plague, it would be an oversimplification to say that the disease alone brought the Roman Empire to death’s door. Its role was more complicated than that.
    As we have seen, plague deaths reduced the tax base, and to compensate, the imperial government increased the rate of taxation. Along with Avar protection money demands, this played a crucial role in creating the difficult financial circumstances that destabilized the army, the empire, and the geopolitical status quo in the revolutionary events of 602.
    In the period 541–602 there had been dozens of plague outbreaks, including four major epidemics. The empire’s population had shrunk by around a third, and its GNP had been reduced by at least 10 percent, possibly by as much as 15 percent.¹ By 602 it had therefore lost wealth equivalent to at least 30 million gold
solidi
due to plague. In addition to that, the empire had paid over the years a couple of million
solidi
in protection payments to the Avars, and over 5 million
solidi
had been lost as a result of Avar and Slav occupation of land in the Balkans.
    Thus it was the cumulative effects of the plague and the Avars that led to the revolution of 602, the disintegration of the geopolitical status quo, and therefore the war with Persia. No doubt there would have been a war with the Persians at some point, but the particular circumstances of 602 determined its date, its nature, and in a way even its duration.
    The Persian War cost the empire even more than the plague had directly. Over twenty or so years of warfare, the empire suffered total losses of an estimated 40 million gold
solidi
(equivalent today to around $80 billion). And the Avar advance in the west, which accompanied the Persian land seizures in the east, cost the empire a further 8 million or so gold
solidi.
Continuing losses from past plague in territories not taken over by Persians or Avars must have come to around 5 million
solidi.
    In the last fourteen years of the Persian War (616–630), Roman wealth loss reached truly catastrophic proportions, averaging 3.5 million gold
solidi
per year (mostly due to Persian land seizure)—a loss of 70 percent of the empire’s annual imperial revenues.
    Looked at in the long term, the ninety-year period 541–631 saw total losses of approximately 90 million gold
solidi.
The plague was directly responsible for more than a third of this. Losses in sources of wealth due to the Persian War (a war caused by partially plague-induced economic and political destabilization) came to an estimated 40 million. Military expenses in the Persian War totaled tens of millions of gold
solidi.
Avar protection-money payments came to about 5 million, while loss of wealth due to Avar/Slav land seizures totaled perhaps 13 million.
    Plague had also led to the decline of urban markets, further undermining the rural economy. Rural and urban governmental infrastructure had been hit hard. Much of the government mail service and much of the highway road-station system—especially in Asia—had been closed down.² The cities’ strategic role in defense had also been undermined by the partially plague-induced population reduction.³ And the cities themselves, in their shrunken state, no doubt commanded less political authority vis-à-vis their hinterlands.
    The loss of most of the Balkans to the Avars or to Avar vassals robbed the empire of one of its prime military recruitment grounds—and it is likely that plague often hit the military in their cramped barracks even more fiercely than the population as a whole. 4
    In terms of