Free The Religion War by Scott Adams Page B

leader.
    "Most people are trained from childhood to favor their irrational impulses when it comes to the most important questions in life. For example, you know how many religions there are in the world and therefore how unlikely it is for any one person, such as yourself, to have chosen the correct one. Yet you choose to ignore the odds. And that learned preference for ignoring statistics frames all of your thinking, sometimes obscuring the obvious."
    "Okay, old man.This is fascinating, but now I want you to tell me how you know al-Zee's plans."
    "I know al-Zee's plans because I understand the power of probability for explaining reality, whereas you, like most people, choose to ignore it. I assigned a probability to each of al-Zee's alternatives and realized that only one has a good chance of preserving his life and providing victory. Al-Zee is sure to come to the same choice," said the Avatar.
    "And what choice is that?" asked the cell leader, visibly angry.
    "Each of his cells—and that includes you—has large supplies of biological weapons, smuggled into the country in the past ten years. When Cruz attacks the Middle East, and al-Zee's forces are no match for the Christian Alliance, he will order you to unleash your weapons and annihilate life in all the major metropolitan centers of Cruz's homeland, at the rate of one city per day, maybe mote. Then he will offer a truce to Cruz if he pulls back his forces. Al-Zee believes that Cruz will be persuaded by public opinion in his homeland to accept the peace offer. Al-Zee is mistaken, but nonetheless, that is his plan, because it has the best chance of succeeding, and al-Zee is a skilled tactician. If it doesn't work, al-Zee will stay in his underground fortress until everything aboveground is dead, emerging as the only viable power."
    The cell leader stared at the Avatar. He had no way of knowing if the other cells had biological weapons, but the basement of his house was full of lethal drums. He made a conscious effort to send no con6rming signals with his face.
    "Wrong," said the cell leader. "Al-Zee's people have no weapons of mass destruction."
    "You operate as a cell, do you not?" asked the Avatar.
    "You already know that."
    "Cells operate independently, with no knowledge of the others. You have no way of knowing whether the other cells have chemical or biological weapons. If you were telling the truth, you would have personalized your answer. You would have said you didn't know about the other cells.You would have said that you certainly don't have any of those weapons in your basement."
    "I didn't say anything about the basement."
    "Your assistant looked at the basement door when I mentioned biological weapons. That's probably the sort of thing you should discuss at your next staff meeting," said the Avatar, with a grin.
    The cell leader, his two guards, and Ali all tried to look straight ahead, to conceal how right the Avatar was.They tried to look angry, which was easy, because they were hopping mad.
    "I'll need to see al-Zee soon. Tomorrow would be good for me. Can you arrange that?" asked the Avatar.
    "Why would al-Zee want to meet with you?" asked the cell leader.
    "Because I know General Cruz's battle plans too," answered the Avatar. "It would take you forty-eight hours to torture the information out of me, or you can get it in twenty-four hours by helping me tell it to al-Zee directly. You think you have choices, but in fact, you have none," he explained.
    The Avatar's argument made perfect sense to the cell leader, much to his annoyance. Somehow the round-faced man had completely lost control of this situation, if he ever had it.
    On the way to the airport, Ali tried to avoid talking to the Avatar, but eventually the urge won.
    "How do you do that?" he asked.
    "Do what?"
    "Know things," said Ali.
    "Oh, that," said the Avatar.
    "You knew what I meant before I clarified it, didn't you?" said Ali.
    "Yes, but it seemed polite to let you complete the question,"