without change a revolution was inevitable and if it was left to extremists and the street mob then it would be they who would rule afterwards. ‘I fear that those who make the revolution will be at the head of that revolution’. The alternative was to be a bloodless palace coup, for none wanted that Michael should become Regent for Alexis ‘surrounded by lakes of blood’. 21 The plan which they slowly pieced together was to capture the Tsar’s train while it was travelling between the capital at the army headquarters at Mogilev, and thus present the country next morning with a fait accompli. To make this feasible Prince Dimitri Vyazemsky, a brother of Michael’s ADC Vladimir, had been charged with the task of recruiting ‘like-minded’ army officers. 22
But would Michael agree to be Regent? The plotters took that for granted, though they made no approach to him in advance. Certainly Guchkov seemed entirely confident. After all, he argued, faced with the reality of Nicholas compelled to abdicate, he would have no choice but to accept, willingly or otherwise. ‘The only illegality would be the moral pressure exerted. After that, the law would come into effect.’ 23
A second and unrelated plot went to the heart of the Stavka itself where General Alekseev, the chief of staff, supported it. One of the principals was Prince Lvov, the popular leader of the civic and volunteer organisations across Russia. Their intention was to arrest Alexandra on one of her regular visits to Stavka , and compel the Tsar to remove her to Livadia; if he refused, as they knew he would, then he would be compelled to abdicate — with the same result as in the Guchkov plot: Michael as Regent. 24 This plan had not been developed because Alekseev had been ill for several weeks, but it remained in being.
However, the arrival in the capital in early January of General Aleksandr Krymov, a 46-year-old cavalryman from Brusilov’s army in the south, gave the Guchkov plot the better chance of success. In Krymov they had the military leader they needed. In the wider picture, it also helped that Krymov knew Michael and they respected each other.
At a meeting in Rodzyanko’s apartment, attended by a number of senior Duma representatives, Krymov made clear his intent. ‘The feeling in the army is such that news of a coup d’etat would be welcomed with joy. A revolution is imminent and we at the front feel it is to be so. If you decide on such an extreme step, we will support you. Clearly, there is no other way...the Emperor attaches more weight to his wife’s nefarious influence than to all honest words of warning. There is no time to lose.’ 25
The meeting lasted far into the night. Although Rodzyanko declined to have any part in it — ‘I have taken the oath of allegiance’ — the others were less squeamish, one quoting Brusilov’s remark that ‘if it comes to a choice between the Tsar and Russia, I will take Russia’. 26
The plot, though lacking detail and with more questions than answers, was now a commitment. With the general in their ranks they were confident of recruiting enough officers for the task in prospect.
Michael was not made privy to any of this, for it was well understood that he could never allow himself to have any hand in bringing down his brother. He would become Regent, but that would be the direct result of the Tsar’s abdication, not because of any act on his part. He would take over with clean hands.
That said, they had first to capture and arrest the Tsar, and they were still weeks away from being ready to do that. But ready they would be, they were confident of that, as they were confident that the Tsar, once in their hands, would have no choice but to do as they commanded. Failure was not an option. They would strike in the middle of March.
In the event, that would be too late. What would be known as the February Revolution would render all that planning of no account.