of individuals and businesses; it encouraged foreign investment in Britain and British investment abroad, which has subsequently provided a valuable stream of income likely to continue long after North Sea oil runs out.
But not every capitalist had my confidence in capitalism. I remember a meeting in Opposition with City experts who were clearly taken aback at my desire to free their market. ‘Steady on!’, I was told. Clearly, a world without exchange controls in which markets rather than governments determined the movement of capital left them distinctly uneasy. They might have to take risks.
We had also been distracted throughout our budget discussions by the worrying level of public sector pay rises. Here we had limited freedom of manoeuvre. Hard, if distasteful, political calculations had led us to commit ourselves during the election campaign to honour the decisions of the Clegg Commission on those claims which had already been formally referred to it. The issue was now whether to refer the unsettled claims of other groups to Clegg, or to seek some new method of dealing with the problem.
It was quite clear to me that in the longer run there were only two criteria which could apply to pay in the public as in the private sector. The first was affordability: ultimately, it was the taxpayer and ratepayerwho had to pay public sector wage bills, and if that burden passed beyond a certain limit, the country’s economy would suffer. The second was recruitment: pay had to be sufficient to attract and retain people of the right ability and professional qualifications. However, the whole bureaucratic apparatus designed to achieve ‘comparability’ between public and private sector pay — not just the Clegg Commission but the Civil Service Pay Research Unit and other bodies — obscured these simple criteria.
We decided to submit evidence to the Commission about the necessity of keeping departmental budgets within reasonable limits and what that meant for public sector pay. But we also decided to keep the Commission in existence for the time being, and indeed refer new claims to it on an
ad hoc
basis. We thought at the time that the Commission might actually make lower pay awards than ministers themselves might have had to concede. But that turned out to be a highly optimistic assessment and, as a result, we underestimated the public expenditure cost of Clegg.
In retrospect, we made a mistake. Even at the time, the warning signs were evident. Geoffrey Howe told me that, allowing for some success in buying out restrictive practices, average pay could well be at least two to three percentage points higher than the recent June Forecast had assumed. In the end, it was not until August 1980 that we announced that Clegg would be abolished after its existing work had been completed. Its last report was in March 1981. The fact remains, however, that the momentum of public sector pay claims created by inflation, powerful trade unions and an over-large public sector was not going to be halted, let alone reversed, all at once.
CIVIL SERVICE REFORM
Whatever the short-term difficulties, I was determined at least to begin work on long-term reforms of government itself. If we were to channel more of the nation’s talent into wealth-creating private business, this would inevitably mean reducing employment in the public sector. Since the early 1960s, the public sector had grown steadily, accounting for an increased proportion of the total workforce. * Unlike theprivate sector, it actually tended to grow during recessions while maintaining its size during periods of economic growth. In short, it was shielded from the normal economic disciplines which affect the outside world.
The size of the civil service reflected this. In 1961 the numbers in the civil service had reached a post-war low of 640,000; by 1979 they had grown to 732,000. This trend had to be reversed. Within days of taking office, as I have noted, we imposed a freeze in
Lisa Mantchev, A.L. Purol