Free Red Phoenix Burning by Larry Bond Page B

Dougherty, the team leader and head of the North Korean section, started the meeting the instant he walked in the room. He spoke loudly enough to cut through the buzz of conversation. “George, what can you tell us?”
    George Yeom had Korean parents who’d immigrated to the US. He was fluent in Korean and kept in close touch with his extended family back in the “old country.” It was his job to also keep in close touch with the National Intelligence Service. The NIS was the South Korean equivalent of the CIA, and Yeom managed the exchange of information between the two agencies.
    Seoul was thirteen hours ahead of Washington, which meant George was more accustomed to the odd hour than his colleagues. Short and square-faced, Yeom avoided the podium and stood near a map of the Korean Peninsula. “The South Korean agencies live and breathe HUMINT, of course. They don’t have our satellites or ELINT aircraft, but then again, satellites won’t tell them who’s loyal to whom.
    “Most of that HUMINT used to come from defectors and their spy network in the North. That network is now in a shambles. Their assets are either unable to communicate, gone to ground, or possibly arrested. NIS just can’t tell. The channels the agents used to pass information are unavailable. Phone exchanges, dedicated tie lines, and the private networks used by some of the foreign organizations that operated in the North are all down, either by design or disrupted by the fighting in Pyongyang.
    “On the other hand, the number of defectors, or more properly, refugees, is through the roof. They give a consistent picture of fighting around the capital, along with witch-hunts and random arrests throughout the countryside, but few useful details.
    “My opposite number says they are ‘taking measures to get more information,’ but wouldn’t provide specifics.”
    Dougherty asked, “What about their take on the communications we’ve intercepted?” The US and ROK operated joint listening stations along the DMZ, and the US shared the information it gathered by ferret aircraft.
    Yeom shrugged. “Civilian traffic is way down, and what’s left is disjointed and contradictory government pronouncements. If you’re talking about cultural or linguistic insights, they can’t see any pattern or purpose, because they think there isn’t any purpose.
    “They agree with our assessment that there are three major factions: Kim loyalists, a group of party bigwigs, and the General Staff. They have absolutely no idea who’s going to come out on top.”
    Yeom saw Dougherty looking at the clock and wrapped it up quickly. “At a higher level, my contacts tell me there’s a huge fight within the ROK cabinet. A lot of people in the South want to send the army across the DMZ, right now, while the Kim regime is tied up in knots.”
    Many around the room looked either amused or worried. “President An is not one of them,” Yeom announced firmly, “and has pointed out to the hotheads the danger of presenting the different factions with an external enemy.”
    “Sounds like what’s been going on in Congress,” Dougherty remarked.
    “And the ROK armed forces are remaining at something called ‘Invasion Alert,’ and the reserves are being mobilized,” Yeom finished, then returned to his chair.
    Dougherty nodded and started working his way down the table. “Ben, what about China? Anything to add?”
    “They’re keeping the embassy in Pyongyang and consulate in Chongjin open, but the last bus carrying noncombatants left Pyongyang for the border yesterday morning. The Chinese are beefing up their border security, but it’s all border troops. The three group armies in the Shenyang Military Region are still in their barracks or engaged in routine training. There’s been a major clampdown on the Korean refugee community. We’re all agreed that China’s worried, but is keeping clear.”
    Dougherty nodded and turned to a thin woman with short white hair.