Report on Probability A

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Authors: Brian W. Aldiss
while the shepherd was on the left of the central axis of the picture, kneeling and leaning forward, the girl with the lamb on her lap was sitting on the right of the central axis of the picture and leaning backwards; the girl was supporting the weight of her torso by a right arm thrust backwards until the hand had come to rest at a point further to the left than an imaginary straight line dropped from her shoulder, with the result that this arm took up a diagonal that nearly matched the diagonal of the shepherd’s body, against which it seemed lightly to rest.
    If there was anything behind this phenomenon, if it was not its own lesson, then it could be interpreted to mean that although the girl in part leant away from, or was averse to, the advances of the shepherd, there was nevertheless a part of her that inclined towards him, or was predisposed to accept his advances.
    â€œI wonder if she ever let him … or is going to let him … if she.…”
    This ambiguity could hardly be resolved by a scrupulous examiner, since the rest of the picture seemed to echo rather than resolve the ambiguity. (In the same way, the scrupulous examiner was unable to decide permanently whether the creator of the picture had marshalled his objects with a deliberate attempt at a discomforting ambiguity or obliquity of statement, or whether he had aimed at making some form of statement incapable of paraphrase and perhaps not previously attempted, and in so aiming had not entirely succeeded, lapsing instead into an ambiguity that was unwished for.)
    It was open to interpretation whether the shepherd was intent upon becoming more intimate with the girl, or whether his absorption was in the collection of lepidoptera: for he leant forward clutching gently in his left hand a large death’s head moth which he thrust forward over the girl’s left shoulder for her to inspect. Either he had brought this creature as a pretty thing that might serve as a pretext for becoming more intimate with her (and the possessiveness of his pose suggested this alternative) or else he was more concerned with the fine specimen that he had managed, surely with some skill, to capture intact (and the solemnity of his gaze at the moth favoured this alternative). This latter interpretation seemed the less likely, since shepherds, whose associations with nature render them unsurprised by its manifestations, rarely become lepidopterists. On the other hand, this particular moth, fine specimen though it was, represented an unfortunate choice of a bauble with which to lull the girl’s apprehensions, since superstitions attaching to the death’s head moth would make it an object of unease to such a simple country person as the girl depicted.
    In any event, the girl was not regarding the moth. She had turned her head away from it, though whether this was from a revulsion for the moth or because in so doing she could have a close look at the face of the shepherd, virtually resting on her left shoulder, remained in doubt.
    â€œReally,” said Domoladossa, “this is too bad! Here is this long and increasingly pedantic description of a mediocre painting hanging in the coach house. What’s more, it has already been described once, and that was quite enough. Such an item must be quite irrelevant to our main interest.”
    â€œDo you think so?” Midlakemela said neutrally .
    â€œI do think so! Don’t you?”
    Midlakemela shrugged and inclined his head. In a moment, he excused himself and went over to the Governor’s office .
    â€œAny news?”
    â€œNot really, sir. But there is one curious item which has just come up. Domoladossa doesn’t think it important, but I believe it ought to be mentioned to you, sir.”
    â€œWell?”
    â€œIt’s a picture, sir, hanging in the loft above the coach house where S is hiding. From its description, it might well be the same picture that G has hanging in his wooden

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