Free More Guns Less Crime by John R. Lott Jr

OWNERSHIP, GUN LAWS, DATA ON CRIME/39
    that, at least for blacks and whites, gun ownership does not explain the differential murder rates. For example, while white gun ownership exceeds that for blacks by about 40 percent in 1996 (see figure 3.3), and the vast majority of violent crimes are committed against members of the offender's own racial group, blacks are 4.6 times more likely to be murdered and 5.1 times more likely to be offenders than are whites. Blacks may underreport their gun ownership in these polls, but if the white gun-ownership rate is anywhere near correct, even a black gun-ownership rate of 100 percent could not explain by itself the difference in murder rates.
    The polls also indicate that families that included union members tended to own guns at relatively high and more quickly growing rates (see figure 3.3). While the income categories by which people were classified in these polls varied across the two years, it is clear that gun ownership increased across all ranges of income. In fact, of the categories examined, only one experienced declines in gun ownership—people living in urban areas with a population of over 500,000 (see figure 3.4). Not too surprisingly, while rural areas have the highest gun-ownership rates and the lowest crime rates, cities with more than 500,000 people have the lowest gun-ownership rates and the highest crime rates (for example, in 1993 cities with over 500,000 people had murder rates that were over 60 percent higher than the rates in cities with populations between 50,000 and 500,000).
    For a subset of the relatively large states, the polls include enough respondents to provide a fairly accurate description of gun ownership even at the state level, as shown in table 3.1. The 1988 survey was extensive enough to provide us with over 1,000 respondents for twenty-one

    White
    Black
    Union member in family
    No union member in family
    Race and union membership Figure 3.3. Percent of people by race and by union membership who own guns

    General population, 1988 General population, 1996

    Gun ownership by size of community and by age
    Figure 3.4. Percent of people living in different-size communities and in different age groups who owned guns in 1988 and 1996
    states, and over 770 respondents for three other states. The 1996 survey was less extensive, with only fourteen of the states surveyed having at least 100 respondents. Since these fourteen states were relatively more urban, they tended to have lower gun-ownership rates than the nation as a whole.
    The polls show that the increase in gun ownership was nationwide and not limited to any particular group. Of the fourteen states with enough respondents to make state-level comparisons, thirteen states had more people owning guns at the end of this period. Six states each had over a million more people owning guns. Only Massachusetts saw a decline in gun ownership.
    States differ significantly in the percentage of people who own guns. On the lower end in 1988, in states like New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, only 10 or 11 percent of the population owned guns. Despite its reputation, Texas no longer ranks first in gun ownership; California currently takes that title—approximately 10 million of its citizens own guns. In fact, the percentage of people who own guns in Texas is now below the national average.
    Understanding Different Gun Laws and Crime Rate Data
    While murder rates have exhibited no clear trend over the last twenty years, they are currently 60 percent higher than in 1965. 9 Driven by sub-
    Table 3.1 Gun-ownership rates by state
    CBS General Election Exit Poll (November 8, 1988) surveyed 34,245 people
    Voter News Service General Election
    Exit Poll (November 5, 1996) surveyed
    3,818 people
    Change in states over time
    Table 3.1 Continued
    CBS General Election Exit Poll (November 8, 1988) surveyed 34,245 people
    Voter News Service General Election
    Exit Poll (November 5, 1996) surveyed
    3,818 people
    Change in