Free Where the Conflict Really Lies: Science, Religion, and Naturalism by Alvin Plantinga Page A

argument go? Let “S” be the proposition that “some relatively complex living things did not descent from relatively—celled organisms but rather were independently created by a supernatural person;” then, as Draper points out,
(2) P(E/N) is much greater than P(E/T) if and only if P(-S/N) × P(E/-S&N) is much greater than P(-S/T) × P(E/-S&T). 33
     
    Naturally he proposes to show that P(E/N) is much greater than P(E/T) by showing that P(-S/N) × P(E/-S&N) is much greater than P(-S/T) × P(E/-S&T). He proposes to show this by showing (a) that P(-S/N) is much greater than P(-S/T), and by showing (b) that P(E/-S&N) is
at least as great as
P(E/-S&T).
    Draper argues with respect to (a) that P(-S/N) is at least
twice
P(-S/T). If, as he also argues, P(E/-S&N) is at least as great as P(E/-S&T), the consequence is that P(E/N) is at least twice as great as P(E/T); this is sufficient, he apparently thinks, for P(E/N) to be much greater than P(E/T). If his argument is correct, therefore, P(E/N) is at least twice as great as P(E/T).
    Suppose this is true: how much does it really show? As he says,
if all else is evidentially equal
, theism is improbable. But of course all else is not evidentially equal. Aren’t there are a host of other probabilities in the neighborhood that favor theism at least as heavily? For example, let “L” be “there is life on earth.” Given the incredibly difficulties in seeing how life could have come to be just by virtue of the laws of physics, P(L/N) is low. But P(L/T) is not low: it’s likely that the God of theism would desire that there be life, and life of various kinds. Hence P(L/T) is much higher, I’d guess orders of magnitude higher, than P(L/N). Similarly, let “I” be “there are intelligent beings”; let “M” be “there are beings with a moral sense”; let “W” be “there are creatures who worship God”; each of P(I/T), P(M/T) and P(W/T) are much greater than P(I/N), P(M/N), and P(W/N). The God of theism would very likely desire that there be creatures who resemble him in being rational and intelligent; he would also, no doubt, desire that there be creatures who have a moral sense, and can tell right fromwrong; and he would also very likely desire that there be creatures who can experience his presence and who are moved to worship by God’s greatness and goodness. There will also be many other “known facts” that are more probable on theism than on naturalism. If so, however, the evidence favoring naturalism over theism that Draper cites will be more than counterbalanced by evidence favoring theism over naturalism.
III WHY DO PEOPLE DOUBT EVOLUTION?
     
    As we’ve seen, Dawkins, Dennett, and the rest of that choir favor us with a
fortissimo
rendition of their claim that current evolutionary theory is incompatible with Christian belief—and, indeed, theistic belief of any sort. As we’ve also seen, they are mistaken on this point (as on many others). This mistake, however, isn’t a merely theoretical error: it has serious practical consequences. Polls reveal that most Americans have grave doubts about the truth of evolution. Only about 25 percent of Americans believe that human beings have descended from ape-like ancestors, whatever they think about the main lines of the whole theory. Many Americans are concerned about the teaching of evolution in the schools and want to add something as a corrective (“intelligent design,” perhaps) or they want it taught as a mere “theory” rather than as the sober truth, or they want the objections to it taught, or they want it taught along with “critical thinking.”
    What accounts for this? Why don’t Americans simply accede to the authority of the experts here, and shape their opinions and educational policies accordingly? Kenneth Miller thinks it is because of a “healthy disrespect for authority” on the part of Americans, perhaps going back to frontier days:
If rebellion and disrespect are indeed part of the