injured innocence, as if appealing for justice. Then he looked at Marion again, his face changing back instantly. ‘You know, if you were Mao in 1960, you would have wanted to support the Vietcong just to draw us into Vietnam. Getting us into Vietnam is what led eventually to getting Nixon to China. We withheld recognition of them for twenty-four years but Vietnam changed that. So if you were Mao in 1960, you might have said, let’s get the Vietcong insurgency going and let’s suck the Americans in until they realize they can’t pretend we don’t exist any more.’
‘I don’t think Mao said that in 1960,’ said Marion.
‘Neither do I. But if he was smarter he would have. Maybe President Zhang’s saying it now.’
‘Joel, we already recognize China.’
‘There are other things they want from us.’
‘I don’t think Uganda’s going to be a Vietnam.’
‘I agree. And I sure hope not. But the situation doesn’t need to be identical for the same principles to apply. Suck us in and get us into a situation where we have no alternative but to acknowledge they’re a player.’
‘We already acknowledge they’re a player.’ Marion couldn’t help smiling. ‘Joel, I’ve got no idea whether you’re serious or not.’
‘I’m serious. I’m deadly serious. You know, I’m glad Knowles has done this. I mean, I don’t think he’s got the first idea what he’s doing, but I think there’s a good chance we’ll end up in a situation where we’re going to need China to help us out.’
‘I really hope that’s not going to happen.’
‘No, I do. That would be a good thing. We have to share leadership with them and we should be actively looking for ways to do it. We have to switch to doing that. In fact, someone’s just written an excellent book about precisely that point.’ Joel paused theatrically. ‘Oh! Me. We have to switch from a stance where we sit here figuring out what we can do to bolster our position and what crumbs we have to let the Chinese have in order to keep them quiet, to one where we actively seek to create a joint leadership approach.’
Marion didn’t disagree with that. She just thought it was going to take a long, long time until the US and China were anywhere near able to behave in that fashion.
‘Unless we change our approach, we’re going to see conflict over global issues. I’m serious, I’m talking about real conflict. The problems won’t solve themselves. You know how it works, Marion. When the tensions are there, anything can act as a trigger.’
‘And what’s the time scale for this conflict of yours?’ asked Marion half-jokingly.
‘Listen,’ said Joel. He sat forward, an intense expression on his face. ‘Marion, I know you and I think differently. I know you think I’m the kind of historical thinker who’s completely impractical when it comes to the reality of the day-to-day relationships between states.’
Marion smiled. ‘I wouldn’t say exactly that.’
‘Not in front of me. It’s okay, I know you would. And you, you’re very practical. You take that knowledge you have and distil it into learning to manage real diplomacy. Practical, meaningful stuff that makes a difference from one day to the next. I’m in awe of that, really, I am. But you know, Marion, there are times when the two converge. The big historical stuff and the day-to-day. This is one of those times. Let me give you an example. South Africa. We both know the Chinese government is cosying up to the ANC dictatorship. We’re seeing a world power helping a country move away from democracy to an alternative form of government. Think about that. We haven’t seen anything like it since the height of the Cold War.’
‘Joel, we’re working very hard to stop it. That’s high on our agenda, very high.’
‘And I hope you succeed. But to me, it’s the phenomenon that’s important, what it means about what’s happening in our world. The way power is shifting and being