Idrissa has packed the new counterterrorism strike teams, the ones we are training and equipping as part of Operation Sand Scorpion, with people from his home area. It’s a standard consolidation move. Perhaps Maiga feared Idrissa’s growing power base; perhaps he was trying to placate him. We suspect Idrissa moved against Maiga because he learned the president was getting ready to cut him down.”
“Do we know that Maiga was planning to fire Idrissa?”
“Yes.”
“I see. What about Idrissa’s health? He looked very gaunt on television. He’s definitely thinner than when I met him eight months ago.”
“Idrissa is rumored to have early-stage colon cancer, but we don’t see any pattern to confirm this. He has not traveled for medical treatment outside the country and is not known to be on any specific medication. We can check on this.”
“Okay, so where is Maiga? Do we know?”
“No, sir,” replied another analyst. “We don’t yet have eyes on him. There is a lot of activity at the main barracks on the east side of Bamako, so it’s highly probable he is being held there. And we have confirmed Red Berets manning the approaches.”
Judd turned back to Sunday. “What about Diallo? Does he have a role here?”
“Aaay, good question. General Oumar Diallo has a pattern of opportunism. He had spent years building up a network of allieswith an eye to becoming king one day. Idrissa was, at one time, a protégé of Diallo’s. Not long ago, Idrissa was a principal lieutenant and likely a key part of his plan for seizing political power. Even though that’s all gone awry, he still has a healthy view of himself. We expect him to make a push to return to Mali at some point. We just don’t know if that point is now.”
“Where is he now?”
“We believe he is still in London.”
“And what’s he doing?”
“MI6 reports he is in contact with senior military personnel in Mali, but they don’t have anything more, at least not that they are sharing with us. So it’s not clear if Diallo is giving orders or just gathering information. We have to assume he is plugged in, but we can’t characterize his current relationship with Idrissa.”
“Could Idrissa be fronting for Diallo? Just clearing the way for him to return to the country?”
“Possible but unconfirmed. They have historically been both allies and rivals.”
“Desperate times can make unusual bedfellows. And I’ve been told Diallo is the cousin of the First Lady, Mrs. Maiga? Is this correct?”
“Yes, sir.”
“Okay, so how does that figure into this morning’s coup?”
“It might be nothing. The political class in Mali is actually very small. Everyone knows each other.”
“And this new group, Ansar al-Sahra? Are they relevant to the events of today?”
“Glad you asked,” responded yet another analyst. “Ourcounterterrorism team is gathering evidence on all new active cells in Mali. Ansar al-Sahra, loosely translated as ‘defenders of the desert,’ is the latest variant and does appear connected to extremist jihadist elements in the region.”
“What do we know?”
“High probability that Ansar is a splinter group from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. AQIM began as an opposition movement in Algeria but soon disappeared underground and then spread into neighboring countries, including northern Mali. AQIM commanders have been trying to project the impression they are the local affiliate of the global movement built by Osama bin Laden and now run by Ayman al-Zawahiri. AQIM is known to be recruiting across West Africa, so we would expect Ansar to follow similar tactics.”
“Is there any evidence?”
“Last month our counterterrorism unit tracked two known Libyan jihadists who came down into Mali with cash and attempted to infiltrate mosques in Timbuktu and Djenne. They were picked up by Malian security. The Scorpion unit under the direct command of General Idrissa provided both the initial intel and executed the