Free Fatal Storm by Rob Mundle

the night – a typical southerly buster for what was shaping up as a typical Hobart race. There was, however, still an element of uncertainty about the intentions of a low that was lingering off the NSW coast and what impact an upper air disturbance might have on conditions in Bass Strait. Roger Badham was already well on his way to the CYC from his home at Coledale, south of Sydney. He had been up almost the entire night analysing the very latest local and international computer models of the developing weather patterns.
    Badham had outlined what he expected to happen, what to look out for and what the many potential scenarios might be. Most of the race’s high profile competitors were relying on him to provide them with the answers to the mysteries of meteorology – answers that would give them the best possible chance of winning. Badham’s briefcase carried satchels with the name of each yacht he was servicing written on the outside: Sayonara , Brindabella , Wild Thing , ABN AMRO Challenge , B-52 , and many others.
“This is a typical Hobart race – with the southerly change – but this is one of the mostdifficult in recent years to accurately pinpoint the wind changes due to an intense low that looks set to develop near Tasmania,” he said.
    “The low is associated with an upper cold air trough [and fast moving fronts] that will produce heaps of breeze south of Tasmania and things look pretty reasonable on the Tassie coast. Over Bass Strait – well it depends exactly where the low develops – how close to Tasmania…but best guess is not too far south and the forecast at the time of writing this [early hours of December 26] is for quite strong winds across Bass Strait on the 27th and slowly moderating winds on the 28th.
    “This afternoon/tonight, 26 December: nor’easterly sea breeze in the afternoon ahead of a southerly front expected around midnight. This is a sou’westerly change through Bass Strait and a southerly (180°) change along the NSW coast. This is really a trough system and thunderstorms are likely with and ahead of the trough. Late yesterday, storms gave short wind squalls of 50 to 60 knots across Victoria – this will be the case again this afternoon, so be prepared. A low in the Tasman looks like being absorbed into the trough/front and sliding down the front to be off Tasmania tomorrow.
    “Sunday 27 December: high pressure must wait over the Great Australian Bight while a low pressure system spins up south east of Tasmania. The high will ridge along the Victorian coast and north Bass Strait around the NSW corner, but if the low really spins up, then it will be the cyclonic circulation around this that will dominate Bass Strait.”
    The one word that stood out was “cyclonic”. Americans call it a hurricane.
    There was plenty already happening when Badham and his wife Margaret arrived at the CYC to deliver the eagerly-awaited forecasts. The weather predictions would determine the planned sail inventory for the race, the yacht’s course and tactics for the first 12 hours, and how the yacht might be configured for maximum performance. The docks were jammed with sailors, supporters, spectators and media. Wheelbarrows laden with supplies, ice, crew bags and yacht equipment were being deftly guided through the crush to their respective destinations. High in the forest of masts and what seemed to be the tangle of rigging supporting them, crewmembers were swinging around like monkeys on strings, scanning for potential problems. Television crews with bulky cameras on their shoulders panned, tilted and zoomed in and out to capture the pre-race atmosphere. Reporters were busy interviewing the race identities.
    Tom Sobey, a 17 year old from Albury on the NSW–Victorian border, was attracting a lot of attention. His efforts the previous day to hitch a ride aboard a race yacht had failed. Undaunted, he decided to give it one more shot on Boxing Day. From 7am he had walked the docks at the CYC with