Free The End of Doom by Ronald Bailey

Globally, discoveries of new oil fields peaked in 1962. The time lag between peak global discoveries and peak production was estimated to be around thirty-two years, but peak oilers claim that the two oil crises of the 1970s reduced consumption and thereby delayed the peak until now. Hubbert’s modern disciples argue that humanity has now used up half of the world’s ultimately recoverable reserves of oil, which means we are at or over the peak.
    Have we reached or passed the halfway mark of world petroleum reserves? Not yet. The 2014 Statistical Review of World Energy, issued by the oil company BP, notes that global proved oil reserves rose from 1.04 billion barrels in 1992 to 1.69 trillion barrels in 2011. The US Energy Information Administration’s 2013 International Energy Outlook concurs with the BP review and reports that known world oil reserves total 1.6 trillion barrels.
    Recall that peak oil was supposed to have happened in 2005 (on Thanksgiving Day!), when production was 82 million barrels per day. In 2014, global oil production reached 92 million barrels per day. At that rate of production, current reserves would last fifty years. In general, most experts project that to meet demand in 2035, world oil production will rise to around 110 million barrels per day. At that rate, known reserves would last forty years. In addition, proved reserves of natural gas in 2012 stood at 187 trillion cubic meters and annual production was 3.4 trillion cubic meters, at which rate known supplies would last fifty-five years.
    The International Energy Agency annually issues its Resources to Reserves report. The IEA is an international think tank established in the 1970s by the governments of the rich countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The IEA advises those governments on energy supplies and policies. Like most organizations that evaluate future resource supplies, the IEA makes a distinction between reserves and resources. Reserves are known stocks that can be produced economically using today’s technology. Resources are stock estimates that are judged likely to be ultimately producible depending on market and technological developments.
    The IEA’s Resources to Reserves 2013 report estimated that worldwide proven conventional oil reserves stand at 1.3 trillion barrels. Adding estimated recoverable conventional oil resources brings the total to 2.7 trillion barrels. The IEA then estimates that reserves of unconventional oil are around 400 billion barrels and recoverable resources of 3.2 trillion barrels. This assessment brings the total world petroleum reserves to 1.7 trillion barrels and the global resource base to just under 6 trillion barrels. In his 2012 report Oil: The Next Revolution, Harvard University Belfer Center scholar Leonardo Maugeri agrees: “Oil is not in short supply. From a purely physical point of view, there are huge volumes of conventional and unconventional oils still to be developed, with no ‘peak-oil’ in sight.” As evidence, he cites data from the US Geological Survey suggesting that the remaining conventional oil resources are 7 to 8 trillion barrels.
    With regard to natural gas supplies, thanks in large measure to the combination of hydro-fracturing and horizontal drilling, vast new stores have been released from previously unexploitable shale formations. The IEA in 2011 issued a report asserting: “Conventional recoverable resources are equivalent to more than 120 years of current global consumption, while total recoverable resources could sustain today’s production for over 250 years.” As the IEA 2013 report succinctly notes, “Fossil fuels are abundant in many regions of the world and they are in sufficient quantities to meet expected increasing demands.”
    The fundamental error made by the peak oil disciples of Hubbert is now clear; they substantially underestimated the actual amount of